The US is worried China could have a top-spec chipmaking machine despite export restrictions, but the machine maker ASML denies it

The Dutch company ASML is the only company to make the world's most advanced chipmaking machines. Those machines have only ever gone to US or US-friendly companies such as TSMC, Intel, Samsung, and so on. The Chinese chipmaking market hasn't had access to them—perhaps until now, that is.

According to the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, there are concerns that one of ASML's best machines might have made its way into China (via Bloomberg). Those are, reportedly, concerns that Lutnick has raised to the company's senior leaders in private meetings.

ASML, however, denies this, saying that none of its EUV machines—extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which use high-frequency light to trace circuits onto silicon wafers—are in China.

Bloomberg's anonymous senior US administration officials say they have evidence that ASML isn't being completely truthful here; evidence such as, for instance, that EUV tools have been exported to China. This evidence was not shown to Bloomberg.

The semiconductor machine company tells Bloomberg: "ASML regularly engages in transparent and open dialogue with government leaders globally. We recognize the national security considerations behind export control regulations in the US and the Netherlands, and we’re fully committed to complying with all applicable regulations."

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ASML also says it has previously "refuted several unfounded rumors regarding non-compliance with export controls concerning China which were inaccurate and damaging to our reputation."

It would be a big deal if China did have an EUV machine from ASML, because this would move them a lot closer to the chipmaking ability of companies in the Western market like TSMC. ASML's CEO had previously said that China was 10–15 years behind the West in its chipmaking capabilities (via Tom's Hardware). The country had been blocked from getting new ASML machines because the US made sure the Netherlands restricted exports of them.

That hadn't stopped China from trying to play catch-up, though. For instance, late last year, Reuters sources reported that China now has a prototype EUV machine thanks to ex-ASML workers reverse-engineering ASML ones. These sources, however, reportedly said that China's machine is crude compared to ASML's, and it's doubtful there will be a working chip produced from it for at least the next couple of years.

Given ASML's reported adamancy that there is no EUV machine from the company in China, a small part of me wonders whether this prototype machine could be responsible for the mix-up. At any rate, with none of the US gov's supposed evidence in the open, it's hard to say.